A regional summit in Baghdad. The Iraqi government will host the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership on Aug. 28 in Baghdad’s Green Zone. High-level representatives from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Jordan, Turkey and Egypt were invited to attend. Delegations from various European countries and other global powers were also invited as observers, with French President Emmanuel Macron among those expected to attend. The conference seeks to position Iraq as a regional leader and mediator in order to contradict the country’s image as an unstable country struggling to control its own economy and security. Any contact between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran on the sidelines of the summit, which Iraq is trying to foster, will be key to watch for.

The deadline for a full U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. U.S. President Joe Biden has said he remains committed to the complete withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by Aug. 31. There is a high risk for additional terrorist attacks against U.S. forces by the Islamic State, which is capitalizing on the confusion at the Kabul airport and the political sensitivity around the withdrawal. The Taliban is waiting until after the Aug. 31 deadline to release further details of the planned government structure for the country. The U.S. withdrawal will mark a new phase in Afghanistan that will see attention shift to the governing capacity of the Taliban, their relations with transnational militant groups (including al Qaeda), and the potential for renewed civil war.

Ukraine’s president meets with Biden. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Washington on Aug. 30 for a long-awaited meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden. There are several points of contention between the two sides, including the recent U.S. deal allowing Germany to complete its Nord Stream 2 pipeline with Russia. Biden is primarily concerned with Ukraine moving forward with economic and anti-corruption reforms to stabilize the country long-term, which Zelensky opposes due to short-term stability concerns. Zelensky will also seek more U.S. engagement in the Donbas conflict and contingency military assistance for Ukraine given Russia’s military build-up along the border in April, which will resume during September’s Zapad exercise. However, both sides will face strong domestic political pressures to cast the meeting as a success. Biden will seek to avoid the accusations leveled at his predecessor of insufficient support for and even undermining Ukraine’s stability, while Zelensky will be keen to avoid the perception that his administration is less capable of securing critical U.S. support compared with his predecessor Petro Poroshenko.

South Korea’s defense chief visits Egypt and Oman. This will mark the first visit of a South Korean defense minister to Egypt, and follows Seoul’s decision earlier this year to designate Egypt as an ODA priority partner country for 2021-25. South Korea has rapidly developed its defense industry in recent years, emerging as the 10th largest arms exporter from 2015-19, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s 2020 yearbook. The allure of South Korean arms deals emanates from Seoul’s willingness for technology transfer and co-production, as well as South Korea’s status as a middle power, which allows countries to avoid the politics associated with purchasing U.S., Russian or Chinese weapons.

A potential U.S.-China meeting on climate issues. Following his Aug. 31 trip to Japan, U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry is expected to visit China from Sept. 1-3 ahead of the November U.N. Climate Conference. Sources indicate Kerry will meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, during the trip. The two sides are expected to seek means of cooperation on climate change, which has emerged as a potential area of overlapping interests despite the overall tense U.S.-China relationship. But some bilateral frictions over climate-related issues have emerged, with the United States pressuring China to accelerate its peak emissions and net-zero timelines. Kerry may also push for China to publicly commit to a halt in the financing of coal-fired power plants overseas, which have been a critical part of China's assistance to developing countries.