The Zapad 2021 military exercise underscores Belarus’ growing reliance on Russia to deter domestic opposition and Western action, as well as confirms Ukraine’s security concerns. This year’s Zapad exercise, which takes place every four years, will commence on Sept. 10 and run through Sept. 16. The critical elements of the maneuvers will be conducted in Belarus and Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, and along Russia’s border with Ukraine. But drills and logistical operations will also be held in Russia’s southern, northern and central military districts, as well as in Kazakhstan.

Since their inception in the mid-1970s, the Zapad drills — named after the Russian word for “west” — are the highest-profile exercises Russia conducts. They have traditionally served as a reflection of the relationship between Moscow and its Western counterparts, as well as a preview of how Moscow views possible armed confrontations with its Western neighbors.

After halting them in the 1990s and 2000s, Russia revived the drills in 2009, which at the time were aimed at ensuring the defense of the Union State against emerging threats and developments in “hybrid warfare,” including involving the suppression of domestic uprisings.

In addition to Russia and Belarus, seven other countries will be directly participating in this year’s exercise, including Mongolia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Serbia and India. An additional nine countries — Pakistan, China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Uzbekistan and Sri Lanka — will also be participating under observer status.

The 2021 exercise confirms Belarus’ geopolitical rebalancing toward Russia in the aftermath of the contested 2020 presidential election, which ended years of a foreign policy that pursued a more balanced position between Russia and the West. For Russia, the drills show its commitment to protecting Belarus. Larger numbers of both Russian and Belarusian forces will take part in the 2021 exercise compared with Zapad 2017. This year’s exercise will also take place at a greater number of locations inside of Belarus. Even more notably, Minsk has proudly presented the Zapad drills as a part of its strategy against potential aggression from NATO. This is in stark contrast to 2017, when Belarusian media speculated that the government was reluctant to participate in the Zapad exercise for fear of Russia using it as an excuse to leave additional troops stationed in Belarus. Minsk’s conduct at the time also came in the wake of the 2014 Euromaidan uprising against Ukraine’s Russia-backed government, which has since prompted Moscow to tighten its economic, political and military grip on Minsk amid fears that a West-leaning government in Belarus would deprive the Kremlin of its last true redoubt of strategic depth against NATO. In the aftermath of the 2014 protests in Ukraine, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko rebranded Belarus from a stalwart Russian ally to a mediator between Russia and the West in an attempt to receive economic benefits from both and avoid a similar fate befalling him and his country.

On Aug. 20, a Russian defense official said that Zapad 2021 would involve around 200,000 servicemen, which would make it the largest-ever Zapad exercise.

Additionally, a top Belarusian military official also said on Aug. 5 that 12,800 servicemen would take part in Zapad exercises in Belarus. But the real figure is likely to be significantly larger (The official 12,800 number — as well as the dispersal of the exercise across dozens of training grounds and other locations — is likely partially an effort to avoid accountability for requirements under the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Vienna Document, which stipulates that foreign observation is required if troop levels exceed 13,000).

Russia has added six divisions — each over 10,000 troops — permanently based in its Western military district since 2017, which highlights Moscow’s consistent view that Russia’s biggest security threats are on its European borderlands.
The exercise is also meant to send Belarus’ domestic opposition the message that Minsk is willing to use force to prevent new protests and even allow Russia’s intervention if necessary. This year’s Zapad exercise reaffirms the Kremlin’s belief in Lukashenko as an agent of stability in Belarus, which is notable given that just a year ago Moscow was not in a rush to come to Lukashenko’s aid. In fact, this year’s exercise will include a social unrest simulation in which Belarusian and Russian forces will work together to repel a fictional NATO-backed uprising against Lukashenko’s government. The Kremlin, for its part, will also use the exercises to drum up domestic support for the ruling United Russia party ahead of parliamentary elections that begin on Sept. 17, the day after the exercises' conclusion. In doing so, Moscow will leverage its domestic propaganda channels to stress Zapad 2021 as another example of Putin’s revival of the Russian armed forces and willingness to use that military power to keep neighbors like Belarus in Russia’s orbit.

The drills will reignite security concerns in Ukraine as well. Key elements of the exercise will take place not far from Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia, where Russian troops left their heavy weapons in April in anticipation of the drills. Some of this year’s Zapad drills will also occur near the southern Belarusian region of Polesie, marking a new threat on Ukraine’s northern border that has raised concerns in Kyiv. Indeed, Russian troop deployments to these areas will simulate a major escalation with Ukraine, presumably due to a flare-up in the Donbas conflict. It is also possible that Russian forces will leave additional infrastructure at these sites after the exercises, which would make rapid deployments easier in the future and create new and constant risks for Kyiv.

Zapad will only fortify Ukraine’s growing security concerns, most recently due to Russia’s Sept. 3 revocation of a long-running Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) mission on Ukraine’s state border in the separatist-controlled regions. The move is clearly meant to signal to Ukraine that if it doesn’t follow through with the Minsk agreement, Russia will escalate the Donbas conflict.

Lukashenko has allowed Russia to expand its troop presence in Belarus in recent months through the establishment of “training centers” on its territory, and looks likely to allow an expanded Russian presence on Russia’s two existing installations in Belarus. NATO and Kyiv would see additional Russian troops based in Belarus as a new threat.

Finally, this year’s Zapad drills between Belarus and Russia will exacerbate both countries’ already high tensions with NATO. While Russia views military action against Ukraine as more likely than against NATO, Moscow understands that Ukraine’s freshly reasserted strategic partnership with the United States means that it must simultaneously prepare for increased tensions with the alliance in the case of a major flare-up with Ukraine. This explains Zapad’s simultaneous pairing of actions along the borders with Ukraine and with NATO.

Furthermore, Zapad 2021 comes as Belarus’ relations with its Western neighbors are arguably at an all-time low amid questions over Lukashenko’s legitimacy and major human rights violations in the aftermath of last year’s elections. Belarus’ effort to funnel migrants into countries such as Lithuania and Poland in retaliation for EU sanctions against Minsk has also further soured its relations with nearby NATO members.

Poland and Lithuania have in recent weeks deployed additional police and military units along their borders with Belarus. Poland’s interior minister warned on Sept. 3 that his country would have to “take into account various types of provocations” that could take place during the exercise amid the already “incredibly tense" situation at the border due to the migrant flows