The Ethiopian government’s recapturing of key towns is unlikely to significantly hasten the end of the yearlong civil war, as both sides remain unwilling to negotiate. The Ethiopian government announced on Dec. 6 that it had retaken Dessie and Kombolcha a month after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) seized the two strategic towns, which are both located along the A2 highway connecting the northern Tigray region to Addis Ababa. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pointed to the latest victories as proof that his Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) had won the war against Tigrayan forces, which began in November 2020. But while TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda appeared to confirm the rebel group had left Dessie and Kombolcha, he also noted the retreats were “part of [the TPLF’s] plan.” Announcements from both sides should be treated with skepticism, as the ongoing media blackout in Ethiopia has made it exceedingly difficult for journalists to report on what’s happening on the ground. But the TPLF’s exit from Dessie and Kombolcha so soon after seizing them indicates the rebel group may have overextended its supply lines by pushing further into Amhara (the region located just south of Tigray). And this — coupled with the ENDF’s renewed fervor amid fears that rebels were planning an offensive on Addis Ababa — may have left Tigrayan forces little choice but to abandon the strategically located towns.

Tigrayan forces caused widespread alarm within Ethiopia and the international community when they seized the towns about a month ago by stirring fears that the rebels were preparing to attack Addis Ababa.

As the conflict progresses, the next key location to watch is TPLF-occupied Weldiya. The TPLF’s loss of Dessie and Kombolcha will severely limit its capacity to invade Addis Ababa, as the two towns are located along the highway connecting the Tigrayan regional capital of Mekelle to Ethiopia’s federal capital. But the TPLF still has control of Weldiya, another strategically important town along the A2 highway that rebels also recently seized. On top of Dessie and Kombolcha, the loss of Weldiya – which is located approximately 119 kilometers (74 miles) north of Dessie – would significantly weaken Tigrayan forces’ position on the battlefield. If the ENDF is also able to recapture this town, TPLF leadership could consider negotiations with the Abiy government.

As things stand, however, a protracted standoff remains the most likely outcome of the conflict, with the bulk of fighting remaining in the north. Unless the TPLF is able to regroup and retake Dessie and Kombolcha, fighting between TPLF and government forces is likely to remain limited to the northern Amhara and Tigray regions. While this increases the Ethiopian government’s leverage in potential peace talks, a continuation of fighting in the north is unlikely to lead to losses that would bring the TPLF to the negotiating table in the immediate future. The TPLF faces less resistance from host populations in the north of the country, and supply chain issues are also less pertinent the closer rebel fighters are to the Tigray region. This means resistance to the ENDF will be tougher the farther north the frontline moves.