What Happened: Following a meeting in Kyiv with Ukrainian officials, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Russia could attack Ukraine at "very short notice," echoing a statement by White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki that Russia could launch an attack "at any moment," Reuters reported Jan. 19. Separately, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow could reduce regional tensions if the United States guarantees that it will never vote in favor of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO.

Why It Matters: Ryabkov's comment marks the first time that Russian officials have backed down from their initial position, but it is unlikely that the United States will be willing to unilaterally block the possibility of Ukraine and Georgia's inclusion in NATO. Tensions are likely to remain very high for the next several weeks amid Russia's continued military build-up near Ukraine's border, and the possibility of a diplomatic solution is likely to become clearer only after Moscow receives and responds to the United States' written answers to Moscow's proposals for security guarantees in the next several days. A Russian attack on Ukraine is still possible after the United States' formal response is delivered, as Moscow will likely determine that it has given the West sufficient strategic warning and will seek to raise tensions even higher as part of its bid to get concessions regarding NATO's expansion.

Background: Large numbers of Russian troops and equipment are already arriving in Belarus under the pretext of exercises named "Allied Resolve" for which an initial combat readiness stage is scheduled to end on Feb. 9 before the drills themselves run from Feb. 10-20. If Russia decides to undertake major military action against Ukraine, it would likely occur around the time of these drills.