What Happened: Thirteen Chinese aircraft — including electronic warfare jets — entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Jan. 24 after China sent 39 aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ 260 miles southwest of Taiwan’s main island on Jan. 23, Focus Taiwan reported Jan. 24. Also on Jan. 23, the Financial Times reported that China has maintained a naval presence for the past six months near Japan’s Nansei island chain just east of Taiwan.

Why It Matters: China's new air incursions do not mark a change in Beijing’s posture toward Taiwan, but China’s naval deployment signals the country's willingness to deter Japan and the United States from interfering in Taiwanese affairs by making its threats of eventual invasion more credible. It will be important to watch whether, after the Beijing Olympics, Chinese aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ resume with the frequency and scale seen in October 2021.

Background: China's Jan. 23 aerial exercises constitute the second-largest incursion in Taiwan since Taipei started publishing data in September 2020. The only larger incursion occurred on Oct. 4, 2021, when China flew 56 planes over Taiwan. The United States and Japan agreed on Jan. 21 to deepen cooperation against Chinese threats, and the countries conducted a joint maritime drill on Jan. 17.