What Happened: U.S. government sources said they believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and has communicated that decision to the Russian military, PBS reported Feb. 11. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in a subsequent press briefing that those reports do not reflect the position of the U.S. government.

Why It Matters: Russia's attempt at coercive diplomacy has still not yielded movement on its biggest demands, which could compel Moscow to resort to either escalating the Donbas conflict or conducting some form of invasion in the coming weeks. Russia likely expected its threatening military deployments to push Kyiv into showing greater flexibility in its interpretation of the Minsk II agreement and into enacting some of the agreement's measures. Instead, Kyiv reiterated that it would not yield to Russian pressure or backtrack on two of Moscow's red lines: negotiating with Russian-backed separatist leaders and giving the same leaders veto powers over Ukraine's foreign policy. There is also no sign that Moscow has shown flexibility in its own interpretation of the agreements.

Background: On Feb. 11, U.S. President Joe Biden reportedly told major allies that the United States does believe Vladimir Putin has decided to attack Ukraine. This statement suggests either that the U.S. government has assessed a higher likelihood of an attack next week or that Washington's confidence in its assessment that an attack could occur next week has increased based on new intelligence. Negotiations in Berlin on Feb. 10 failed to produce an understanding between Russia and Ukraine.