What Happened: On March 11, Russian ships passed through the Tsugaru Strait and conducted military exercises from March 12-13, firing missiles at targets on the island of Etorofu, one of the disputed Kuril Islands that Japan claims as part of its Northern Territories, South China Morning Post reported March 14. The Tsugaru Strait is considered international waters, but Japan was not notified in advance of the Russian exercises and lodged a complaint after the warships passed through the strait.

Why It Matters: Russia is highly likely to continue military exercises around the Kuril Islands and elsewhere to ward off speculation that the country is preoccupied with the invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, the military exercises could be a message to the United States that Russia is active in Asia and that the West's involvement in Ukraine will not confine Russian activity to Eastern Europe. Japan is extremely unlikely to take any military action against Russian forces near the Kuril Islands and instead will continue to lodge diplomatic complaints.

Background: Tokyo has participated in global sanctions against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, but it is constrained from further actions by its involvement in Russia's Sakhalin-2 gas project, which supplies around 10% of Japanese liquified natural gas imports.