While Russia is unlikely to invade Moldova in the short-to-medium term, a series of explosions in a Moldovan breakaway region near Ukraine could eventually grant Moscow a justification for doing so, in addition to destabilizing the pro-EU government in Chisinau. The attacks also risk distracting Kyiv from Russia's renewed offensive in the eastern Donbas region by amplifying the threat to southern Ukraine. A spate of suspicious explosions in the pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region of Transdniestria starting on April 25 has stoked fears that Russia may soon launch an attack toward Transdniestria from the Ukrainian territory it's seized during the ongoing war. The explosions did not result in casualties, but prompted Transdniestria's government to raise the unrecognized republic's terrorist threat level to high and order the erection of checkpoints outside towns and cities and at the borders with the rest of Moldova and Ukraine.

The three incidents took place within 24 hours at Transdniestria's Ministry of State Security in the capital of Tiraspol, a military base near the village of Parkany, and the towers broadcasting Russian radio and television near the village of Mayak. On April 27, Transdniestrian authorities also claimed that shots were fired at housing in the village of Kolbasna after drones from Ukraine flew over a Russian arms depot there.

The explosions are probably an attempt by Russian or pro-Russian Transdniestrian political forces to stoke anti-Ukrainian sentiment and provide Russia justification to eventually intervene in the region by creating an alleged threat to Russian citizens of Transdniestria. After holding an emergency meeting of the country's Supreme Security Council on April 27, Moldovan President Maia Sandu told reporters that the Ukraine crisis had split Transdniestrians into two competing factions — presumably referring to those who seek to fuel tensions or even join Russia's fight against Ukraine, and those seeking to avoid escalation or getting involved in the war for fear of the massive casualties and destruction it could cause to the breakaway region. Sandu added that the recent explosions were indicative of this rift. Such increased tensions could serve to destabilize Moldova's pro-EU government with the threat of a Russian intervention, which the country's woefully understaffed and underfunded military is completely unprepared to resist.

On April 22, shortly before the series of explosions began, the acting commander of Russia's central military district said that if Russian forces were successful in seizing full control of southern Ukraine, Moscow could create a corridor to Transdniestria, where ''there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.'' Prior to the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Kyiv of discriminating against the Russian-speaking population in the country's eastern Donbas region. Many now, in turn, see the commander's use of similar language just days before the explosions as confirmation that Moscow is preparing to justify an imminent military action toward Transdniestria, where Russia already maintains approximately 1,500-2,500 troops, and where around half of the region's 500,000 residents are believed to hold Russian passports.

Transdniestrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky claimed that ''traces of [the recent] terrorist attacks'' came from Ukraine and urged Kyiv to investigate the infiltration of militant groups within its borders that could carry out such attacks in Transdniestria.

Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said on April 26 that Russia was responsible for the terrorist activity in Transdniestria, and noted the explosions indicated Russian leaders saw occupying Moldova as necessary and wanted to open another line of attack against Ukraine to accomplish this. Arestovych later in a separate statement said that Transdenistria ''was not capable of capturing Chisinau,'' but Moldova ''could still be in big trouble and should turn to Romania and Ukraine for help.''
A Russian attack from occupied Ukraine linking up with Transdniestria is not feasible at this time, suggesting the recent explosions are in part aimed at pressuring Ukraine to deploy more troops near its southern border with Moldova, thereby distracting Kyiv from the main fight in Donbas. Russian military forces in southeastern Ukraine are currently not capable of conducting an attack toward Transdniestria, as such a move would involve capturing or bypassing the heavily defended cities of Odessa and Mykolaiv. But such a thrust into the region could be conducted in the future following an expansion of Russia's war efforts and national mobilization efforts, as well as mobilization and training of additional forces in Transdniestria. Additionally, as Ukraine is already de facto under complete naval blockade, there is little strategic urgency for Russia to launch a risky operation to seize all of southern Ukraine and link up with Trandneistria at this time. Therefore, the region playing a significant role in Russian affairs remains unlikely for the foreseeable future, though such discussions could resume following a mobilization in Russia or significant battle successes in the east that free Russian forces to reconsider offensive operations in that direction — a possibility that is likely months away at the earliest.

Media reports suggest many Transdniestrians believe joining the fight against Ukraine is not in the breakaway region's best interest. However, that will not stop local authorities or Russian troops from acting on Moscow's behalf at the needed moment.

Ukraine and Moldova may consider launching a preemptive attack on Transdniestria to ensure the pro-Russian separatists in the region don't have time to mobilize the population or launch an attack from the area at a time of Moscow's choosing. Russia, however, would see this as a major provocation, which will deter Kyiv and especially Chisinau from conducting such a risky operation.