The war in Ukraine is creating significant social and security challenges for Romania that EU assistance will only partially mitigate, but at the same time, it is leading to temporary political stability. Romania has traditionally been concerned about potential Russian aggression, explaining the country's staunch support for NATO and frequent requests for a greater NATO troop presence in the country. A Russian invasion of Romania is improbable considering that Moscow most likely wants to avoid a direct confrontation with any NATO member states. Still, Romania's hawkish position on Russia and its support for tough EU sanctions against Moscow and an increased NATO presence in the Black Sea region make the country vulnerable to unconventional retaliation from Russia. This could include cyberattacks against Romanian state institutions, infrastructure and private companies. Romania could also be subject to disinformation campaigns and other destabilization attempts from the Russian government or pro-Russian groups, either directly or in neighboring Moldova, which is not a NATO member.

Romania shares a 614-kilometer (about 381-mile) land border with Ukraine, which means that the war is getting closer and closer to Romania as Russia intensifies its attacks in western Ukraine.

Romania also has Black Sea coastline, meaning if Moscow ends up controlling southern Ukraine as a part of a strategy to deprive Kyiv of access to the sea, Romania and Russia will share a larger maritime border. (Russia de facto controls Crimea, on the Black Sea, but Romania and the European Union do not recognize Moscow's claim to the territory.) This will increase the risk of deliberately provoked or accidental confrontation between the Russian and Romanian navies, and potentially constrain Romania's room to explore for hydrocarbons in the Black Sea.

Romania is worried that the Ukraine conflict could extend to neighboring Moldova, because Russia eventually could use the pro-Russia breakaway territory of Transdniestria to launch an assault on the Ukrainian city of Odessa. Even if Russia does not invade Moldova, it could try to destabilize Moldova's pro-European government. This would increase political instability and social unrest in Romania's smaller neighbor that in a more escalatory scenario could spill over from Moldova into Romania. While a part of Romania's political and military establishment supports deepening defense cooperation with Moldova, critics of the idea argue that doing so could lead to unnecessary frictions with Russia.

In mid-March the director of Romania's National Cyber Security Directorate, Dan Cimpean, said the country faced a "spectacular rise" in the number of cyberattacks aimed at its infrastructure since the start of the war.

The Russian threat has reduced internal disputes within Romania's coalition government, ensuring that domestic and foreign policy will not be significantly disrupted, at least temporarily, though economic challenges will grow. Before the start of the war in Ukraine, Romania's coalition government — which includes the center-left Social Democratic Party, the center-right National Liberal Party and the centrist Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania — was riven by ideological and political disputes, which made the government fragile and complicated policymaking. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, however, has resulted in a more cohesive government that is seeking to avoid internal disputes at a time of a major war in the region. While some sporadic disputes will continue to take place, and a Cabinet reshuffle to renew Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca's team of ministers is possible in the coming months, the external challenges facing Romania will bring temporary stability to the government. This means that Bucharest will not face a political crisis, such as a surprise collapse of the government, and the government will be able to speak with a single voice at the European Union on issues such as applying and enforcing sanctions against Russia, providing financial support to Ukraine, housing asylum seekers, and providing political and financial support to Moldova. But even if Romania's political environment will be more stable, the government will have to confront emerging economic challenges.

The war in Ukraine is contributing to already high energy prices in Romania, which could slow activity in the manufacturing sector, as companies face rising operating costs. High fuel prices meanwhile could negatively impact transportation companies, increasing the probability of supply chain disruptions. And a reduction in disposable income in Romanian households could result in reduced domestic consumption (retail sales already contracted by 1% year-on-year in January), further weakening economic growth and opening the door to social unrest.

The Romanian government is trying to mitigate all these risks by capping energy prices, but this will come at the expense of high public spending that will worsen Bucharest's fiscal deficit.

In the coming months, Romania is likely to need significant institutional, logistical and financial support from the European Union to cope with migrants, but will still face challenges even with EU aid. For decades Romania has faced significant emigration, which means that it has limited experience in receiving large numbers of asylum seekers. While the Romanian government has provided residency rights and housing to migrants from Ukraine who want to stay in the country and free transportation to those who want to go to other parts of the European Union, a significant part of the assistance is coming from nongovernmental organizations and grassroots organizing efforts, resulting in some lack of coordination. As a result, in the coming weeks, Bucharest is likely to ask Brussels for increased logistical and financial help to deal with migrants. The European Union is currently considering legal mechanisms to give asylum seekers coming from Ukraine long-term work and residence permits. Brussels is also looking for ways to make it easier for Ukrainian children to continue their education in the European bloc. While these EU measures will alleviate the burden on Romania to some extent, the country could struggle to implement these EU measures due to its logistical and institutional shortcomings. In a longer timeframe, there is a risk of isolated episodes of racism and discrimination, which in a more escalatory scenario could grow into larger anti-government protests or even targeted violence if Romanians feel that the migrants are generating crime or competing with them for jobs and state help.

In a March 17 speech, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said his country will receive "as many refugees as needed."

On March 21, the Romanian government announced that more than 515,000 people had arrived from Ukraine since the beginning of the war, with around 80,000 opting to stay in Romania while the rest continued their journey to other parts of the European Union. According to official figures, of the asylum seekers who chose to stay in Romania roughly 30,000 are children.