South Korea's record arms sale to Poland will cement its standing as a middle power arms dealer, deepen its ties with NATO countries and cause concern with China and North Korea. On July 27, Poland signed a deal to purchase tanks, pieces of artillery and fighter jets from South Korea, marking the biggest-ever arms export in South Korean history. The weapons included in the deal are estimated to total $15-20 billion, which is over double the $7.1 billion worth of arms South Korea sold in all of 2021. Poland says it plans to use the South Korean weapons to resupply its own stockpiles after providing arms to Ukraine to fight Russia.

Under the new deal, South Korea will provide Poland with 980 K2 Black Panther tanks made by Hyundai, 648 K9 howitzers made by Hanwha, and 48 FA-50 fighter jets developed by Korea Aerospace Industries and Lockheed Martin. The first 180 K2s and 48 K9s will arrive in Poland this year, while production for the remaining 800 K2s will begin in Poland by 2026. The 600 K9s will arrive in 2024, with further production to start in Poland 2025.

Prior to the deal with South Korea, Poland criticized Germany for failing to live up to its previous promises to supply Poland with replacement arms. Poland's request was so large it was impossible for Germany to fulfill the order on the timeline that Poland had requested, which is why South Korea stepped in.

Since the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea, South Korea has sold arms to Norway, Finland, Estonia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, India and Australia. At the end of 2021, South Korea signed a $717 million agreement with Australia for 30 self-propelled howitzers, 15 armored-ammunition supply vehicles, and weapons locating radars.

The arms sale to Poland will give South Korea an opportunity to strengthen security cooperation with European partners, and will firmly entrench South Korea as a major arms dealer. South Korea's direct production of arms in Poland will start a new chapter in its arms deals to Europe. Seoul will look to protect its production deals in Europe by strengthening its diplomatic and economic ties with entities like the European Union and NATO, either through trade and investment agreements, intelligence and technology sharing and potential military cooperation. This will also open up South Korea to potential Russian diplomatic and economic retaliation if Poland uses South Korean arms to counter Russia or support the Ukrainians. Additionally, Seoul's eagerness to fulfill Warsaw's large arms order in a relatively short timeframe will make South Korea an attractive alternative to the world's traditional arms dealers — namely, the United States, Russia, China, Germany, and France. South Korea has the capabilities to meet the immediate demands and will use the soon-to-be-completed K9 facility in the Australian city of Geelong, and the proposed Hanwha and Hyundai facilities in Poland to fill the future orders.

South Korea attended its first-ever NATO summit on June 29, which was held in Madrid, Spain. During his address at the summit, South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol said that South Korea shares NATO's vision of liberal democracies and that the two parties share common threats and concerns posed by China and Russia.

Germany also sold a record $9.2 billion in arms sales in 2021, mostly in maritime equipment, radar, and missile defense systems to countries like Egypt.

France expects to sell around $30 billion worth of arms for both 2021 and 2022 combined, compared to roughly $9 billion in 2019, driven mainly by sales of French-made Rafale fighter jets.

In 2020, the South Korean army reached its quota of securing 1,000 K9 howitzers, which enabled Hanwha to export the K9 en masse. In 2021, the Seoul-based conglomerate began construction of a production facility in Geelong, Australia, that is set to finish in 2025.

As it becomes a more visible arms dealer, South Korea may find it difficult to maintain its non-confrontational reputation with global partners. South Korea's emerging role as an arms producer will create ripple effects across East Asia. North Korea will accuse South Korea of destabilizing the region at the behest of the United States, creating yet another source of tension between Seoul and Pyongyang. China will also denounce South Korea as a destabilizing actor. In particular, Beijing will also view South Korea's new arms dealer status as a security threat to China's territorial interests, as countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia will see South Korean arms as an attractive option to bolster their capabilities to hedge against potential Chinese territorial aggression. China will thus likely deepen its ties with Cambodia and seek to accelerate the expansion of the country's Ream Naval Base, as Beijing looks for opportunities to increase its influence and prevent nearby nations from cooperating with South Korea against Chinese interests. In Japan, some more hawkish conservative politicians will use the growing South Korean arms deals as justification for increasing Japan's own domestic arms industry, as well as boosting military spending to both keep up with South Korea and counter security threats posed by China.

Japan removed its usual 1% defense spending cap for the 2023 fiscal year, and will likely seek to increase its Self Defense Force capabilities amid politicians' growing concerns over a more belligerent North Korea. Japanese politicians are increasingly worried about China's aggressive rhetoric toward Taiwan and the growing prospect of a conflict over the island, which would likely see the deployment of U.S. forces stationed in Okinawa. To that end, Japanese politicians have been seeking to find common ground with their South Korean counterparts to restart intelligence sharing between their two countries and begin some high-level bilateral military engagement.