This is to show the kinds of things I look at outside the U.S. If you like it I will do more of them. I track ongoing world events as they can sometimes involve us, or eventually may involve us. The Sengal paragraph has potential for U.S. involvement.
The mainland cements its control over Hong Kong. China's National People's Congress reportedly will vote on sweeping electoral reforms for Hong Kong on March 11 that will sideline the pro-democracy camp in the long term in both the Legislative Council and the chief executive selection process. Numerous leaks have emerged about the content of these changes, but the final vote and release of the precise details will be essential for understanding Hong Kong's internal environment for the foreseeable future. Most critical will be whether the mainland announces changes beyond electoral politics to encompass the judicial system or civil service that could undermine the rule of law and alter the environment for foreign businesses in Hong Kong.
A possible crackdown in Senegal. Opposition MP Ousmane Sonko will face a court hearing on March 8 related to rape charges against him that Sonko and his supporters claim are entirely political. Several days of demonstrations by Sonko's supporters, some violent, have undermined stability across typically staid Senegal. They open the question of whether the government under President Macky Sall is trying to silence Sonko, who champions anti-corruption and was a rival to Sall in the 2019 presidential election. The hearing will provide some clarity on whether Sonko's supporters will continue to demonstrate, and how far the charges against Sonko will reach.
Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo delivers his State of the Nation Address. The president will present his outlook for the next year on March 9; three days later, the government will unveil its annual budget. Ghana's finances are somewhat fragile as it deals with COVID-19 and liabilities from the energy and power sectors. Akufo-Addo has spent his time in office trying to work with the International Monetary Fund on structural reforms and austerity measures, and this will still be present in Ghana's next budget even though it will have some economic stimulus. Ghana's debt will grow over the next few years, but whether this becomes a fiscal crisis will depend on whether the government and ruling New Patriotic Party come under political pressure in 2024 to buy support through expansionary spending — something common in Ghana's past.
Regional elections in Bolivia. Bolivia will hold regional elections for departmental and municipal elections on March 7. Several small political parties such as the Jallalla party out of El Alto and the We Believe party out of Santa Cruz pose a challenge to Evo Morales' Movement for Socialism (MAS) party. Should political newcomers from these parties beat MAS candidates, it would demonstrate a growing desire for centrist and conservative voices in the Bolivian political arena. Additionally, the results of this election may affect the allocation of COVID-19 resources. Bolivian President Luis Arce stated that it would be "difficult to help municipalities with authorities with which the national government cannot coordinate," insinuating that departments that align with MAS may be first in line for vaccine distribution.
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