China finalizes its sweeping Hong Kong electoral reform. From March 29-30, the National People's Congress Standing Committee will meet in Beijing to finalize the details of changes approved March 11 to Hong Kong's Legislative Council and the Chief Executive Election Committee that will limit the ability of the pro-democracy opposition to gain power. While much is already known about the content of these reforms, questions remain about precise details, particularly regarding how substantial of a proportion of the legislature will be appointed and how so-called "patriotic" vetting standards will be applied.

The Biden administration might be nearing completion of its review of U.S. North Korea policy. According to unconfirmed leaks, the administration also plans to meet with national security officials from Japan and South Korea the week of March 29 to discuss the results of the U.S. policy review. With North Korea having conducted two sets of missile tests the week before, Seoul in particular will push for greater U.S. attention on outreach to Pyongyang. Washington, however, is unlikely to show flexibility in the near term on its push for the total denuclearization of North Korea, meaning that any U.S.-North Korea dialogue will be limited in terms of outcomes, leaving tensions in place.

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi finishes his multicountry Middle East tour on March 30. Wang will visit Bahrain, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates in official visits, and will pay a working visit to Oman. The visit will showcase the evolution in Chinese commercial and strategic interests away from solely energy security and toward a broader range of shared interests, including financial investments and cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative. China has historically tried to avoid political entanglements in its commercial engagements, but is undeniably becoming a stronger actor in the Middle East, prompting speculation by regional observers about whether Beijing over time will match its commercial muscle with political heft.

Five Indian state or union territories hold assembly elections over the next month as Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi and his ruling Bhartiya Janata Party aim to expand their traditional power base. Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are all holding elections. Assam and West Bengal kicked off multiweek elections on March 27, while the others will hold elections April 6. The most important election to watch will be in West Bengal, where the BJP is looking to capitalize on momentum to gain control of India's fourth-most populous state after a strong performance there in 2019 general elections and a string of high-profile defections from the ruling regional party to the BJP over the last three months. Success in spreading the BJP's influence beyond its traditional base of power and farther into northeastern and Southern India would benefit Modi's attempts to implement his reform agenda at the local level.

OPEC+ holds an extraordinary summit. The April 1 meeting will see the group decide its May production policy, while its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will meet March 31 to discuss compliance levels. OPEC+ is unlikely to agree to a dramatic increase in production figures, and a rollover of production at current levels is likely. Its March 4 decision to largely maintain production constant for the month of April suggests OPEC+ will try to keep market conditions tight even as the global economy recovers from COVID-19 and demand increases. Even though this initially led to a spike in oil prices, with Brent briefly breaking the $70 per barrel mark, its bull market run has been paused at least temporarily as oil prices have sunk in recent weeks over short-term demand concerns. The decline in prices is likely to push Saudi Arabia to take another hawkish stance against supply hikes.