Indirect talks between Iran and the United States in Vienna. The talks will continue April 14 after progress was reportedly made during meetings the previous week. Negotiators have been clear that last week's talks were only the start and that significant progress will be necessary before Iran and the United States can reach an agreement on resuming compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, particularly as Iran maintains that it wants the United States to lift sanctions before it reduces its nuclear activities. A face-saving deal where an agreement is reached by which the United States says it is lifting sanctions after Iran makes certain moves may be possible down the road. The United States and Iran could be looking for confidence-building measures during the talks. One trip to watch closely next week is the April 11-12 trip to Iran by South Korean Prime Minister Chung Sye Kyun. Iran released the South Korean tanker it seized in January because South Korea had frozen Iranian funds due to U.S. sanctions. In February, Iran and South Korea reached an agreement to release those funds. Any release would need U.S. support, so any positive movement toward their release during Chung's visit would likely be a confidence-building development with the United States.

Ecuadorian, Peruvian and Bolivian elections. The three votes will all occur April 11, with the countries holding presidential runoff elections, congressional and first-round presidential elections, and runoff gubernatorial elections, respectively. In Ecuador, the vote will indicate if the country will continue its current market-friendly policies under a conservative party or return to the populist rule of the 2010s. In Peru, five candidates are in a toss-up for two runoff spots, with the leading candidate polling at a meager 12%. Both elections are likely to be marked by a large share of the electorate voting more against a given candidate than voting for a given candidate. Bolivia's gubernatorial runoff elections will meanwhile reflect a broader tension between Movement for Socialism candidates and political newcomers.

The Cuban Communist Party chooses new leadership and assesses economic policy. The Party will convene April 16-19 against the backdrop of broader Cuban discontent over a deteriorating economic situation, and the meeting will be focused on how the party can update its current socialist economic model without betraying communist values. The party is likely to revisit reforms that Cuba passed in 2011 but has failed to fully implement, such as requiring state-owned companies to make a profit and loosening restrictions on market forces. Raul Castro is expected to step down as first secretary and Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel will likely replace him. Castro, however, may continue exerting political influence should he remain a member of the Politburo, delaying a generational turnover.

Total and China National Offshore Oil Corp. probably finally greenlight Uganda's long-awaited Lake Albert oil projects. Approval is expected April 11 for the projects, which collectively will produce about 260,000 b/d and include a heated crude oil export pipeline through Tanzania. They have been tied up by several delays and tax disputes with local authorities in recent years. If they proceed, the projects would be a boon for the Ugandan government's finances, but Uganda could deal with some of the same so-called "resource curse" challenges that other African oil producers have faced in the past due to the surge in the value of its currency in order to make the investments into the oil sector and demand for crude oil exports in the future. This could complicate the Ugandan industrial and manufacturing sectors' efforts to compete against their chief regional rivals in Kenya, even if the net impact on the Ugandan economy will be positive.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga meets with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington. The April 16 visit will mark the first face-to-face visit of a world leader since Biden took office, strengthening Japan's central position in U.S. Indo-Pacific and China policies. Japanese media reports Suga also plans visits to India and the Philippines later in April. Suga and his Liberal Democratic Party face challenges at home, and the foreign visits provide an opportunity to demonstrate Suga's and Japan's importance in regional security dynamics. In addition to discussions with Washington and New Delhi on the potential expansion of the Quad (Japan, India, Australia and the United States), Suga is likely to talk about increased defense cooperation with Manila, where Japan has already begun defense sales.

The Turkish Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meets for the first time under new Central Bank Gov. Sahap Kavcioglu. Kavcioglu shares President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's dislike for high interest rates, which has heightened public interest in whether the April 15 committee meeting will see a possible rate cut even amid significant inflationary pressure in Turkey. High inflation that is expected to increase further in April likely means the committee will maintain the main policy rate at 19%, one of the highest rates in the world. Given that Kavcioglu has only been governor for a matter of weeks, the first meeting will be closely observed by domestic and foreign investors for signs of Central Bank independence and indicators of Kavcioglu's strategy moving forward.