The unfolding crisis in Afghanistan will spur new waves of migration in the coming weeks, adding to the 2.6 million Afghan refugees already living in different parts of the world amid years of war in their home country. With the Taliban now in control of all borders, escaping Afghan territory will no doubt prove a dangerous endeavor. But despite the risks, thousands will still likely attempt to flee for fear of the coming return to the socially and politically restrictive rule of the Taliban.

In light of the looming migrant influx, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Gutierres on Aug. 16 urged all countries to receive refugees and refrain from deportations. Each country’s willingness to do so, however, will vary based on their individual social, political, security and economic considerations.

The Middle East

What’s Happening
Several weeks prior to the Taliban takeover of Kabul, authorities in Turkey reported an increase in Afghan migrants attempting to enter Turkish territory from Iran and deployed additional forces to the eastern border to stem the influx. Turkey already has one of the largest refugee populations in the world, with 4 million refugees currently living in the country — 120,000 of whom are from Afghanistan. Within this context, many Turkish politicians across the political spectrum have cautioned the government against accepting more Afghans, which could happen as part of Ankara’s migrant agreement with the European Union.

Iran, meanwhile, has set up temporary camps along its eastern border to house the expected influx of refugees. According to official government records, Iran currently hosts 780,000 Afghan refugees. But the real number is expected to be closer to 2 million, with many residing in the country illegally. Many Afghans living in Iran are Hazara Shiites who have sought safe haven in Shiite-majority Iran — a factor that could spur more Shiite Afghans to attempt passage to Iran, as minorities fear persecution amid the Sunni Taliban’s consolidation of power.

Elsewhere in the region, Qatar will reportedly temporarily host and help transit Afghan migrants to the United States and other locations. But it remains unclear if other wealthy Arab Gulf states will assist with refugee transit and resettlement.

Why It Matters
Economic and social anxiety among local populations about the cost of more refugees will fuel caustic political rhetoric and could spark demonstrations in both Iran and Turkey. The Turkish and Iranian governments could use their roles as refugee and migrant hosts to request aid from wealthier western governments, particularly the European Union. However, in Turkey specifically, the political debate between ruling and opposition parties over the issue is likely to accelerate given the upcoming 2023 elections and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)’s struggle to maintain its popularity, which will put pressure on the Turkish government to not accept migrants. This differs from the 2015-2016 migrant crisis during which Turkey welcomed millions of migrants and struck a deal with Europe at a time when the AKP had recently consolidated its power and its popularity was not at stake.

South Asia

What’s Happening
Despite the worsening situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan is keeping its borders closed to Afghan migrants, in line with its statement in July that the country cannot accept additional individuals. Pakistani officials issued a statement on Aug. 17 saying that they would continue accepting Afghan citizens who possessed a valid visa or resident card, leaving thousands of refugees stuck at newly erected border fences along five major crossing points between the two countries.

Compared with Pakistan, Afghan migration to India is less of a major issue due to the absence of a direct land route. While there is a small possibility of movement through Pakistan, the heavily protected India-Pakistan border is likely to prevent a significant escalation in migration flows. India recently introduced emergency electronic visas for Afghan nationals seeking temporary refuge in the country.

Why It Matters
Pakistan’s refusal to accept Afghan refugees will place an increased burden on other neighboring Central Asian countries as large crowds show up at their borders. However, fears of a surge in Afghan migration will put additional pressure on Pakistan to use its alleged relations with the Taliban to help facilitate a political agreement for the formation of a new Afghan government that could prevent a mass exodus.

While the flow of Afghan migrants to India is likely to be limited, the Afghan crisis could still impact Taliban-India relations in the future. The Taliban have an unfavourable view of India for its military support to the Afghan government in recent decades. And India has only recently reached out to the Taliban to establish contact as a stakeholder in the current crisis in Afghanistan.

Europe

What’s Happening
The European Union’s main goal is to prevent a repetition of the events of 2015-2016, when more than a million Syrian nationals entered the bloc fleeing the war in their country. This crisis led to disputes between EU member states over how to handle the migrants, put unusually high migratory pressure on countries like Greece, and contributed to the rise of anti-immigration political groups across the bloc. In early August, a group of EU governments including Greece and Germany sent a letter to the European Union asking for the deportations of irregular Afghan migrants to continue despite the worsening situation in Afghanistan. Then on Aug. 16, the day after the Taliban declared control of Kabul, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a “robust” EU immigration plan and stressed the need to anticipate and protect against “major irregular migratory flows that would endanger those who use them and feed trafficking of all kinds."

Why It Matters
In the coming weeks, the European Union is likely to increase cooperation, including the provision of financial assistance, with countries such as Turkey, Iran and Pakistan in an effort to keep Afghan nationals in their territories and prevent them from reaching Europe. Individual EU governments will also issue visas and grant asylum to a selected group of Afghan nationals who worked with them in Afghanistan. Finally, the European Union is also likely to strengthen the message that irregular migrants will be expelled, hoping to discourage Afghans from entering the bloc. But the European Union will struggle to deport Afghans once they have entered the bloc. A significant increase in the arrival of migrants would probably resurrect the political disputes of 2015-2016, when EU governments failed to agree on a mechanism to distribute migrants across the bloc.

Eurasia

What’s Happening
Russia and other Eurasian countries have been closely monitoring developments in Afghanistan, with the neighboring Central Asian states of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan particularly worried about the rise of the Taliban leading to increased migrant flows. Tajikistan has said it is prepared to shelter up to 100,000 Afghan refugees, preferably ethnic Tajiks, many of whom in recent months came under Taliban rule for the first time. Uzbekistan has also been preparing for refugee flows, but has declined to express readiness to accept refugees so as to not attract increased flows to or through its territory. With the exception of Tajikistan, Eurasian states have cultivated ties with the Taliban or expressed willingness to do so in hopes that dialogue and recognition could help reduce migrant flows and their destabilizing impacts.

Why It Matters
Central Asian states and Russia are concerned the refugee flows into or through their territory will drain government resources while inciting anti-immigrant social unrest. They are also concerned about religious radicals hiding among refugees, who could then infiltrate Muslim communities in the region to spread a more fundamentalist vision of Islam that would increase the threat of terrorism and possibly destabilize regional governments. With the exception of Kazakhstan, Central Asian states lack the resources to cope with major refugee flows and would have to turn to either international organizations or global powers like Russia and China to secure the economic support needed to prevent or reduce the costs of coping with refugees.

North America

What’s Happening
The United States is hoping to bring 3,500 Afghans with Special Immigrant Visas across its borders in the coming weeks through “Operation Allies Refuge.” 1,200 of those visa-holders have so far been evacuated from Afghanistan. The United States is reportedly seeking agreements with third countries to host some of these Afghans until their paperwork is processed, but has yet to formalize any such deals. The State Department has promised that thousands of displaced Afghans can apply for asylum in the United States, but must do so from a third country. Canada, meanwhile, will reportedly welcome 20,000 refugees, according to the country’s immigration minister.

Why It Matters
The question of whether the United States will accept more Afghan migrants will become a political football between Republicans and Democrats prior to the 2022 midterm elections. More conservative politicians will express fears about both perceived economic limitations that should keep Washington from spending money on migrants, as well the risk of religious radicals hiding among refugees who could then destabilize U.S. security. In doing so, right-wing U.S. lawmakers will also express nativist political and social sentiment that will draw on some Americans’ anxiety about hosting refugees. More liberal politicians, meanwhile, will argue that the United States has a duty to care for not only the Afghans who worked alongside U.S. armed forces as translators and contractors over the past 20 years, but other Afghans fleeing the Taliban’s rule. The resulting debate will complicate President Joe Biden’s efforts to maintain Americans’ support for his decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan.